Here's something you wont hear very often: Pool betting, even without SPW, is not all that bad really. In Steve Crist's book Exotic Wagering (which I thoroughly recommend all people working in tote betting read) he describes exotic bets (Exactas up) as being relatively new. OK, so his book is some 6 years old now, but the comments are still valid today. As a betting proposition, exotics are still relatively new. In fact, so new, that here in the UK, people who would consider themselves regular bettors on horse racing, don't even know how to bet them, or perhaps even that they exist!
Well, anything that simplifies and propagates further the exotic bet proposition has to be a good thing, SPW or otherwise. Tote betting as a whole has got some issues, but so does any betting system. Taking the core tote proposition (ignoring SPW for a while) lets look at some of the good things to start:
- It offers a fair system
- Its easy to run
- Its actually easy to understand (when described properly)
- It offers complex bet types other betting options cannot
- It allows international co-operation at a bet level
Its also got its problems:
- Rapid price fluctuations are common, often after the off, and often 'violent', undermining the confidence in pool betting systems.
- There are pools with liquidity issues which exacerbate the price fluctuations
- We seem incapable of developing new products on pool betting
- The ability to fix prices is more 'popular'
Looking at the list above, the one thing you might notice, is that actually we can address all these issues, at least to a certain degree without implementation of whole new systems. There are numerous things, advantages lets call them, of SPW which can actually be brought into the current systems we have.
The Pareto Principle
I popped in a slide of Pareto to remind us that it's probable we'll get 80% of what we are after with only 20% of the effort going in. Why is this important? In racing we tend to get caught up with the big bang approach. A belief that only revolution will save the day. In almost all cases I can think of in modern business, significant change has occurred through incremental improvement, with occasional 'mutation' to provide a big step change. Very few innovations in the world at large are revolutionary, more evolutionary.
In tote betting, we need to be cautious of the revolution promises, and look more at evolution. If we can achieve 80% of the benefits of Single Pool Wagering through only 20% of the efforts, then lets start there. If we are able to determine that that investment reaped rewards for us, perhaps we'll go the whole hog and finish the job, maybe we will find another 20% worth doing instead.
Finding the 20%
As an industry, we should be committed to learning and acting upon the facts learned. Period. The concept that without empirical data to support the widespread adoption of certain practices is crazy. Our industry is large and fragile. Such wholesale changes, without regards for the negative effects would be a possible disaster. Instead, lets support those who would work with us to better understand our goals, and the impact of our actions, in order that we can weed out the bad ideas, and focus only on the good ones that are practical to implement - finding our 20%.
How would we go about this? Its simple to describe, maybe harder to action:
In tote betting, we need to be cautious of the revolution promises, and look more at evolution. If we can achieve 80% of the benefits of Single Pool Wagering through only 20% of the efforts, then lets start there. If we are able to determine that that investment reaped rewards for us, perhaps we'll go the whole hog and finish the job, maybe we will find another 20% worth doing instead.
Finding the 20%
As an industry, we should be committed to learning and acting upon the facts learned. Period. The concept that without empirical data to support the widespread adoption of certain practices is crazy. Our industry is large and fragile. Such wholesale changes, without regards for the negative effects would be a possible disaster. Instead, lets support those who would work with us to better understand our goals, and the impact of our actions, in order that we can weed out the bad ideas, and focus only on the good ones that are practical to implement - finding our 20%.
How would we go about this? Its simple to describe, maybe harder to action:
- Gather our data. For years we've generated reams of unused data on bettors, pools and the impact of things like timing, takeout and field size. Lets come together and create a central pool of information, open to anyone willing to share the results of their analysis with us.
- Analyse our data. Once we have a master set of data, lets run some tests to see if commonly held theory is correct. As a rule, I believe strongly that what you think is the truth probably is, or at least an approximation to it. Lets test the commonly held beliefs first, to see if we're right.
- Share our results. Its a big industry, with hundreds of participants and operators all contributing to the same pot. To think that we can effect change individually is an unlikely way forward. Lets create a knowledge pool for all to benefit from.
- Act on those results. This seems obvious, but is the hardest part. The 20% rule really applies here. Once we know what works and what doesn't, lets plan clear and effective steps to effect change on a daily, weekly, monthly and long term basis. Setting clear goals for each change, and a timeline to effect them.
- Analyse the outcome. In all good applications of theory, retesting our results after making the change will be critical. Only through learning from what we did can we possibly understand what worked and what didn't, in order to improve our next steps forward.
